This week’s NBA lottery produced a Mavericks win despite the much-scrutinized franchise entering the annual event with less than a 2% chance to secure the No. 1 pick. Long-shot lottery wins have become a regular NBA occurrence, as teams with the worst records have seen their odds to land the top choice decrease thanks to a recent change in the lottery system.
In an attempt to curb tanking, the NBA reduced the odds of the team holding the worst record to 14%. The franchises who finish with a bottom-three record each carry a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick entering the lottery; prior to 2019, the team that finished with the league’s worst record carried a 25% chance at the pick. Although NBA lotteries stretching back decades — from the Patrick Ewing- and LeBron James-centered events — have generated intrigue, the 2019 change has increased drama.
Major League Baseball also now uses a lottery system, waiting until 2022 to implement one, and the NHL also uses this setup to determine its draft order. The Mavs’ recent triumph, however, brought some chatter about the NFL following suit. While this topic has come up within the media, it has never exactly been a front-burner matter in league circles.
The NFL has done plenty to increase viewership in recent years, adding extra playoff teams (and moving a wild-card game to Monday night) while making Christmas Day games an annual event and raising its count of international games. A future in which the league plays 16 international games per season has come up, as an 18-game season appears a near-future inevitability. The league also expanded its draft from two days to three back in 2010, and that change — which offered two primetime windows — has benefited the league. A lottery would certainly garner more interest ahead of that event, but as of now, there does not seem much appetite for big-picture change, Sam Robinson of Pro Football Rumors reports.
No vote about a lottery has taken place in the league previously, and ESPN’s Dan Graziano said during a recent Get Up appearance (h/t Bleacher Report’s Mike Chiari) it is not believed the competition committee has engaged in substantive discussions about such a change. The league, per Graziano, does not believe it has a tanking problem that would warrant a lottery.
Teams maneuvering to land a higher draft slot, of course, has taken place. And recent drafts have shown the value that can come from securing a top pick. The Bears sat Justin Fields in Week 18 of the 2022 season, giving them the No. 1 draft slot — which it traded to the Panthers in a swap that eventually brought Caleb Williams to Chicago — while the Commanders benefited from losing their final eight games in 2023. Washington reduced its chances of winning by trading both Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the 2023 deadline; ownership overruled the Ron Rivera regime on Sweat. This led to Jayden Daniels draft access, which has triggered a sea change in Washington. The Bengals saw the same trajectory shift when they obtained the Joe Burrow draft slot in 2020, outflanking a Dolphins team that became the subject of a tanking investigation.
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