NFL Week 12 Predictions: NFL Picks this Week for Every Game
This article was originally published on Sportsnaut.
NFL Week 11 delivered some fantastic marquee matchups that lived up to the hype and had significant ramifications on the NFL playoff picture moving forward. While there weren’t many big surprises, this season has taught us that more are just around the corner.
Let’s dive into our NFL Week 12 Predictions, delivering game-by-game NFL picks for every game on the schedule this week.
Related: NFL Week 12 Power Rankings, Analysis of All 32 Teams after Week 11
Buffalo Bills 20, Houston Texans 13
C.J. Stroud is ‘uncertain’ to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, per Adam Schefter, putting a bit of a cloud over this matchup against the Buffalo Bills. What gives the Houston Texans a fighting chance in this game is a defense that has allowed just 161.9 passing yards per game (fewest in NFL), 5.2 yards per attempt (lowest in NFL) and a 62.1 QB rating (lowest in NFL) in its last 8 games. The problem for Houston is quarterback Davis Mills. Unless the Texans defense forces multiple Josh Allen turnovers in Bills territory, Buffalo should win this one.
Chicago Bears 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 17
With Aaron Rodgers (wrist) trending toward missing this Week 12 matchup, the path to victory becomes a lot easier for the Chicago Bears. While the Pittsburgh Steelers have fared better defensively in recent weeks (5.7 ypa, 70.6 QB rating and 60.2% completion rate allowed), their struggles prior to that (284.6 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game allowed) feel more in line with this unit as a whole. Ben Johnson will find Caleb Williams opportunities for some big plays, dropping Pittsburgh to 6-5.
New England Patriots 27, Cincinnati Bengals 20
There could be a path to Joe Flacco keeping this a one-score game, as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can win their one-on-one matchups versus Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis (105.2 QB rating allowed in coverage). It also doesn’t help that defensive tackle Milton Williams is out for Week 12. However, Drake Maye and this New England Patriots offense should dice up a unit that has allowed 254.3 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game with an 8.1 yards per attempt average since Week 3.
Detroit Lions 35, New York Giants 17
Regardless of Jaxson Dart’s status for Week 12, the Detroit Lions should blow the doors off the New York Giants. It’ll start with a commitment to the run against a defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (149.9) and the highest yards-per-carry average (5.5) in the NFL this season. Once New York falls behind, Dart or Jameis Winston will be in trouble against a defense that has allowed just 161.3 passing yards per game with a 57.6 percent completion rate and a 78.2 passer rating over the last four games.
Green Bay Packers 17, Minnesota Vikings 14
Ordinarily, an NFC North duel between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings would be must-see television. Not in Week 12 with the state of these two offenses. Now without Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Josh Jacobs, Green Bay’s offense enters this one averaging just 15.3 points and 308.7 total yards per game over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense is averaging 18.3 points and 263 total yards per game over the last four weeks. Home-field advantage and having the superior quarterback who can create more on his own are the only reasons we think the Packers pull out a victory.
Seattle Seahawks 27, Tennessee Titans 7
This could be a very painful game for Cam Ward. The Seattle Seahawks have one of the highest pressure rates (23.8 percent) and sack rates (7.9 percent) in the NFL despite having the fifth-lowest blitz rate. So, the Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback will be standing in a collapsing pocket with none of his pass-catchers open. Oh, Tennessee also doesn’t have anyone who can remain in the same zip code as Jaxon Smith-Njigba in coverage. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Seattle shuts out the Titans.
Indianapolis Colts 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) find themselves in must-win territory heading into this Week 12 matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts. Looking at the favorable angle for Kansas City in this matchup, Indianapolis struggles to generate consistent pressure, and its pass defense can be easily exploited over the middle of the field. However, we are skeptical of the Chiefs’ ability to stop Jonathan Taylor, and success by the MVP candidate will make the play-action all the more effective. In a very tight game, it’s the ability of the Indianapolis Colts to control the clock that propels them to a huge win at Arrowhead.
Baltimore Ravens 31, New York Jets 17
As we wrote in our NFL picks this past week, the New York Jets have no shot at winning if they can’t run the football effectively. On Sunday afternoon, they face a defense that has allowed just 96.6 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks and now doesn’t have to worry about Garrett Wilson. Plus, the Baltimore Ravens have both the physical run game and the explosive downfield threats to beat New York defensively.
Cleveland Browns 17, Las Vegas Raiders 14
Here’s a game that Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns defense can win, with the credit nationally given to Shedeur Sanders (if he starts. The Las Vegas Raiders have little to no pass protection to speak of and Geno Smith’s decision-making under pressure can be catastrophic. There isn’t much to say about the Browns offense in this one, but it really would just have to avoid getting in the way for Cleveland to win.
Arizona Cardinals 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 24
We tend to believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win this past Sunday said a lot more about the Chargers’ offensive line than it does about this team. Both teams could also be missing key wide receivers, with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis) unlikely to suit up. What the Arizona Cardinals can do is attack a Jaguars defense that ranks bottom five in the league against tight ends, and we suspect Jonathan Gannon will be able to cause some issues for Trevor Lawrence.
Philadelphia Eagles 21, Dallas Cowboys 10
While the Dallas Cowboys nearly beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their last meeting this season, that seemed to be a result of Jalen Carter getting himself kicked out. Now, the Eagles will have Carter and Jaelan Phillips to get after Dak Prescott. Given how well Philadelphia has fared defensively over the past four games—53.2 percent completion rate and 68.5 QB rating allowed with 12 sacks—we just see this Cowboys offense joining the growing list of teams shut down by Philly.
Atlanta Falcons 24, New Orleans Saints 20
This might be one of the biggest coin-flip decisions in our NFL picks this week. Not only are the New Orleans Saints hosting the Atlanta Falcons, creating a raucous environment, but this defense has played pretty well as of late. Furthermore, Atlanta might be forced to start Kirk Cousins in Week 12. We still tend to believe the Falcons’ talent wins out, especially since this team has played the Colts (OT loss) and Patriots (24-23 loss) close, but it’s a toss-up. If Drake London (knee) also can’t play, we think the Saints win 23-17.
Los Angeles Rams 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Maybe things would be different if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense were healthy. Unfortunately, the absences at wide receiver strip away the best chance Baker Mayfield would have against the Los Angeles Rams. On Sunday Night Football, we expect a defensive clinic from the Rams, with Puka Nacua delivering some big YAC plays and Kyren Williams going for 80-plus yards and a score against Tampa Bay.
San Francisco 49ers 31, Carolina Panthers 27
A matchup between the San Francisco 49ers to close out Week 12 might not be the matchup viewers on Monday Night Football necessarily want, but there are some intriguing elements to it. Christian McCaffrey faces his former team and a defense that has allowed 149 rushing yard sand 2 rushing touchdowns per game in the last four weeks. As for Carolina, Bryce Young takes on an injury-decimated 49ers defense that has allowed 306 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns per game with a 75.8 percent completion rate in the last four weeks. We just have a little more faith in CMC, Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.
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