5 Players from the 2026 NFL Draft Who Will Be Busts and 5 That Will Be Superstars

Every NFL draft class has them… it is an unavoidable truth of football.

There will always be the big-named guys everyone loves who flame out within three years… you know… The prospects analysts swore would bust who became All-Pros. The first-round picks who can’t crack the starting lineup and the “reaches” who anchor franchises for a decade.

And on the other side of the fence—the guys that are getting no pre-draft love that are going to turn into rockstars at the next level.

The 2026 class is no different. There are prospects being mocked in the top 10 right now who will be out of the league by 2030. And there are guys getting nitpicked to death who will be making Pro Bowls for the next decade.

So let’s separate the future stars from the future cautionary tales—and call out five players who will bust and five who will become superstars.

Which NFL draft prospects will become stars or busts?

BUST: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami

Rueben Bain dominated college football. He won the Ted Hendricks Award. He was ACC Defensive Player of the Year. And he recorded 20.5 sacks over three seasons and 5 sacks during Miami’s playoff run alone.

None of that changes the fact that his arms are historically short.

Bain’s arms measured 30 7/8 inches at the Combine—the fourth-shortest among edge rushers since 1999 and the shortest of any first-round edge rusher in over two decades. He also came in an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than expected, measuring 6-foot-2 and 263 pounds.

For an edge rusher whose game is predicated on power rather than speed, that’s a devastating combination.

Here’s why it matters: Without length, it’s exponentially harder to lock out offensive tackles, control their chest, and convert speed to power on bull rushes. Bain wins in college because he’s more explosive and technically refined than most offensive linemen he faces. But NFL tackles are longer, stronger, and more technically sound. When they get their hands on him first—and with those little arms, they will—Bain is going to struggle to disengage.

College production against ACC tackles is not NFL production against Trent Williams and Penei Sewell.

Some teams will talk themselves into Bain in the top 10. That team will regret it in the NFL Draft.

SUPERSTAR: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

The entire NFL is terrified of Jeremiyah Love falling to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9 in the draft.

That fear is justified and then some… because Love is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, and the comparison is more than hype. He’s a true three-down back who can run between the tackles, catch passes out of the backfield, and contribute in pass protection. 

His 4.36 40-yard dash at the Combine matched Jahmyr Gibbs’ time despite weighing more. 

But Love isn’t just a burner. He rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025, added 27 receptions for 280 yards and three more scores, and broke Jerome Bettis’s program record for total touchdowns in a season with 21. He’s patient behind the line, explosive through the hole, and dangerous in space.

There are some concerns, but they are minor. He’s not the most physical runner between the tackles, and his vision could improve. But… that’s about it.

The league has started investing in running backs again at the top of the draft—Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ashton Jeanty went in the first round the past three years. Love is better than all of them as prospects.

Wherever he lands, maybe except the Cowboys, that offense instantly becomes more dangerous. And if the Chiefs get him? Good luck to the rest of the league once Mahomes gets back under center and defenses have to figure out how to stop this duo.

BUST: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

Ty Simpson is going to go in the first round because teams are desperate for quarterbacks, and he played at Alabama. That doesn’t make him a first-round talent.

The warning signs are everywhere. Simpson is undersized at 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds—not disqualifying, but notable when combined with durability concerns. He was a one-year starter, which limits the tape available for evaluation. And that tape is wildly inconsistent.

Perhaps he could be in the winning starter category with good pieces around him… but if you ask us, that is the ceiling. A “winning starter” with good pieces around him. 

That’s Geno Smith vibes… not a first-round pick that you are going to try and build your franchise around for years to come.

Simpson has tools. He’s accurate, smart, has a strong arm, and throws with anticipation. His decision-making was solid—he didn’t turn the ball over much. But “solid” and “doesn’t turn it over” aren’t traits that get quarterbacks drafted in Round 1. Impact traits are—and Simpson doesn’t have enough of them.

The comparisons to J.J. McCarthy are apt. 

Both are smart, accurate, one-year starters who went to blue-blood programs. McCarthy went 10th overall and hasn’t played a meaningful snap due to injury. Simpson will likely go higher than he should because the quarterback class is weak.

Some team will convince themselves he’s their franchise guy. He’s not.

SUPERSTAR: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Caleb Downs might be the best safety prospect in the NFL draft in the last 20 years. The concerns about his medical evaluation are smoke and mirrors. The production and film are undeniable.

Let’s start with what Downs has done. He was a unanimous All-American at Alabama as a freshman—the SEC’s leading solo tackler at 18 years old. He transferred to Ohio State and was immediately the best safety in the Big Ten, winning back-to-back All-American honors and the 2025 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year award.

In three years of college football, Downs has been the best defensive back on every team he’s played for. That’s not hyperbole—it’s consensus.

The medical “red flags” that emerged from the Combine—a partially torn meniscus and a “potentially degenerative ACL”—have been largely dismissed…

Which is good—because it felt like a classic case of pre-draft smoke-screening… something teams love to do when they want a prospect to fall to them.

But Downs won’t fall far… if at all. His football IQ, versatility, sure tackling, and playmaking ability make him one of the safest picks in the draft. He can play single-high, in the box, or as an overhang defender. He communicates like a 10-year veteran. He’s the quarterback of any defense he’s on.

The Ed Reed and Ronnie Lott comparisons aren’t crazy. Downs has that kind of ceiling. Whoever drafts him is getting a cornerstone piece for the next decade.

BUST: Arvell Reese, EDGE/LB, Ohio State

Arvell Reese has all the traits. He also has no clear position.

The Ohio State defender is the classic “tweener” that scouts love to dream on, and GMs regret drafting.

The problem? He’s not good enough at any one thing to justify a top-10 pick.

Reese projects as an edge rusher who can also drop into coverage, similar to Abdul Carter. But his pass-rushing repertoire is limited, and his coverage skills are concerning—as he lacks the lateral quickness to match up with tight ends and running backs in man coverage, and his zone drops are inconsistent.

That’s a significant limitation for a player whose value is supposed to be versatility.

The best-case scenario for Reese is becoming a situational pass rusher who plays I don’t know… like 50% of snaps in designed rush packages. 

Sure—that’s valuable—but not top-10 valuable. Teams drafting him that high are betting on projection over production, potential over polish.

Those bets rarely pay off. Ask the teams that drafted Clelin Ferrell, Rashan Gary, or K’Lavon Chaisson in the top 10 expecting them to figure it out at the next level.

SUPERSTAR: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

David Bailey wasn’t a household name two years ago. Far from it.

He transferred from Stanford to Texas Tech before the 2025 season and absolutely erupted—14.5 sacks led the nation in 2025. That kind of production spike, combined with improved hand usage and bend around the corner, is exactly what scouts look for in ascending prospects.

Bailey is slightly undersized by traditional edge standards and needs to continue developing as a run defender, but his length and power give him tools to work with that most guys simply don’t have.

The comparison that fits is Maxx Crosby. Both are long, explosive edge rushers who play with relentless motors and use their length to create problems for offensive tackles. 

Some scouts think Bailey has the highest ceiling of any edge rusher in the 2026 NFL Draft. The floor is a quality starter. The ceiling is a perennial Pro Bowler who leads his team in sacks for a decade.

Reuben Bain will get more attention because of his college production and Miami pedigree. Bailey will have the better NFL career.

BUST: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Carnell Tate walked into Indianapolis as the consensus WR1 in this NFL draft class, but he’s walking out with questions that won’t go away.

The Ohio State receiver ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the Combine—the 27th fastest time among wide receivers who tested. For a guy projected to be a top-10 pick, that’s a problem. A big one.

Here’s why it matters more for Tate than most receivers: His game is predicated on winning with route running and body control, not separation. A 4.53 40 confirms what the tape already suggested—he’s not going to run away from NFL corners. And if he can’t separate, his margin for error shrinks dramatically.

The Ohio State ecosystem masked this. Tate played with elite quarterback play, surrounded by other blue-chip receivers who demanded defensive attention.

This is a serious cause for concern for Tate at the next level.

SUPERSTAR: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Kenyon Sadiq just had one of the greatest athletic testing days by a tight end in Combine history.

That’s not hyperbole—it’s fact. Sadiq ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, the fastest by a tight end at the Combine since at least 2003… And he was a freak pretty much across the board.

But what really has scouts excited is that his production and tape back up the athleticism. Sadiq led all FBS tight ends with eight touchdowns in 2025, finishing with 51 catches for 560 yards while serving as the primary receiving option in Oregon’s passing attack. He can win down the seam, after the catch, and in the red zone.

Not to mention, the tight end position has never been more valuable in the NFL… Teams are building offenses around versatile weapons who can motion across formations, win in space, and create problems no matter where they line up. Sadiq is the best version of that archetype in this draft.

There are more than a couple of coaches out there that are licking their chops, fantasizing about scheming up their offense around this guy!

And once your coaches buy into your success, you are set up in a major way to be a star!

BUST: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Yes, the Heisman Trophy winner. Yes, the national champion. And yes, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

And yes, a bust waiting to happen.

Before you close this tab, hear me out. Fernando Mendoza is a very good quarterback. He’s accurate—79.2% adjusted completion percentage, second-best in the country. He’s smart. And he’s tough. He won every game he played in 2025 and led Indiana to a title nobody saw coming.

But “very good” doesn’t cut it when you’re the first overall pick. And there are warning signs everywhere if you’re willing to look.

Start with what happens when Mendoza is forced off his spot… he just did not look like the same guy—and that is not something that will bode well at the pro level.

Speaking of which…

Then there’s the system. Indiana ran one of the most RPO-heavy offenses in college football. Mendoza took just 3% of his snaps under center. That’s not going to fly in the NFL, where playing from under center keeps defenses honest and maximizes play-action effectiveness. He’s essentially learning a new position.

Multiple evaluators at the Combine said the quiet part out loud: Mendoza is “good, not great” and wouldn’t have been the first overall pick in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

By every indication, the Raiders are about to make Mendoza the face of their franchise… which, through no fault of Mendoza’s, is not exactly getting your pro career off on the easiest footing.

He seems like a great kid, and everyone is rooting for him, but it is going to be tough sledding for him to prove his value as the number one overall pick in the NFL draft.

SUPERSTAR: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

If you’re looking for the safest bet in this draft to become an All-Pro, it’s the 6-foot-5 linebacker who tested like a Hall of Fame receiver.

Sonny Styles’ Combine performance wasn’t just impressive—it was historically unprecedented.

But here’s what separates Styles from the athletic freaks who flame out: He actually produces. Over his final two seasons at Ohio State—both at linebacker after switching from safety—he racked up 183 tackles, seven sacks, and an interception. Second-team All-Big Ten in 2024. First-team All-Big Ten and first-team All-American in 2025.

The positional versatility is the cheat code. Styles can play traditional off-ball linebacker. He can drop into coverage and match up with tight ends. Plus, he can spy on mobile quarterbacks. He can rush the passer, as his speed and size make him a nightmare blitzing from the second level.

At this point, it feels like the only question is how high he goes. Top 5? Top 3? Wherever he lands, that team is getting a perennial All-Pro who will anchor their defense for the next decade.