Ranking Every NFL Team’s New Head Coach’s Shot at Super Bowl Glory in 2026
This article was originally published on Total Pro Sports.
The 2026 NFL offseason saw one of the biggest coaching carousels in league history… in fact, 10 teams trotted out new head coaches, a league record. And there were some high-profile jobs—and accomplished coaches shuffling around. We’re talking Super Bowl-winning coaches switching teams, coordinators who just won championships getting their first shot at the big chair, and, of course, franchises that have been stuck in mediocrity for years rolling the dice on a new vision.
But here’s the thing—not all coaching hires are created equal… and neither are the situations they walk into!
Some of these guys are walking into loaded rosters with franchise quarterbacks and legitimate championship windows. Others are inheriting dumpster fires with no answer at the most important position in sports.
So which new head coaches actually have a shot at winning the Super Bowl in 2026? And which ones should just be happy if they finish above .500?
Let’s rank all ten from worst Super Bowl chances to best.
Which coach has the best chance to win a Super Bowl next season?
10. Miami Dolphins: Jeff Hafley
Let’s start in South Beach… where everything is currently on fire, to the point that it is almost surprising that anyone wanted to take this job after they chased Mike McDaniel out of town.
Jeff Hafley takes over a Dolphins franchise that is in full teardown mode. And I mean full teardown.
They just released Tyreek Hill. They’re expected to part ways with Tua Tagovailoa. Bradley Chubb is gone. The roster is being stripped for parts like a car in a chop shop… It is looking like a full-on fire sale, which is tough for your first season as a head coach.
The projected win total for Miami in 2026? Four and a half games. That’s tied for the lowest in the entire NFL.
Now look—Hafley did good work as Green Bay’s defensive coordinator. He helped the Packers field a championship-caliber defense in 2025. But he’s walking into a situation where he doesn’t even know who his starting quarterback is going to be.
Quinn Ewers? The seventh-round rookie who looked like… well… a seventh-round rookie down the stretch last year?
The Dolphins also play one of the hardest schedules in football next season, with the AFC East drawing the NFC North and the AFC West.
The truth of the matter is that this isn’t looking like a rebuild… all signs point to a demolition.
Hafley deserves patience. He deserves time to build this thing the right way. But a Super Bowl in 2026? Not a chance.
9. Cleveland Browns: Todd Monken
Todd Monken knows how to win… at least at the collegiate level. He won back-to-back national championships at Georgia. He was the offensive coordinator for a Ravens team that had the number one seed in the AFC in 2023.
And, of course, he also knows offense.
But he is walking into a tough situation with the Cleveland Browns. They don’t have a quarterback, which makes it pretty tough to run an offense.
That whole side of the ball is frankly a collection of question marks held together by duct tape and prayer.
Shedeur Sanders showed some flashes after getting drafted in the fifth round last year… but he’s not proven. Deshaun Watson is still on the roster and still owed a fortune. Dillon Gabriel is there, too. Monken hasn’t committed to any of them… with good reason.
The offensive line needs to replace four or five starters. The wide receiver room is barren. The only thing keeping this team afloat is a defense led by Myles Garrett, who just set the single-season sack record.
Cleveland has holes everywhere on offense. And in a division with the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, the Browns are going to need a lot more than just Myles Garrett to compete for a Super Bowl.
8. Tennessee Titans: Robert Saleh
Robert Saleh gets a second chance.
After being fired by the Jets midway through the 2024 season—a decision that looks even worse now—Saleh landed in San Francisco as defensive coordinator and turned the 49ers defense back into a juggernaut despite an injury-depleted roster.
Now he’s in Nashville with a blank canvas and roughly $100 million in cap space.
The centerpiece is Cam Ward, the number one overall pick from last year’s draft. Ward struggled early in his rookie season but showed real improvement over the final six weeks. He’s got the arm. He’s got the athleticism. He just needs development.
And Saleh made a smart move by bringing in Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator. Daboll helped develop Josh Allen in Buffalo. He won Coach of the Year with the Giants. If anyone can unlock Ward’s potential, it’s him.
The problem? The Titans still need help everywhere… and there is real concern that it is the kind of ownership group that likes to meddle.
Between the numbers—last year, the offensive line was a disaster. The skill positions outside of the quarterback room are thin. And Saleh’s track record as a head coach—20-36 with the Jets—doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Tennessee has the resources to rebuild quickly. But rebuilding and contending are two very different things.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Klint Kubiak
Here’s where things start to get interesting.
Klint Kubiak just won Super Bowl LX as the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. He’s 38 years old. He comes from the Shanahan coaching tree. And he’s about to inherit the number one overall pick in a draft where everyone knows exactly who’s going first.
Fernando Mendoza.
The Heisman Trophy winner. The national champion. The Indiana quarterback who looked like a man among boys in the College Football Playoff… and is a culture setter in every sense of the phrase.
Pair Mendoza with Ashton Jeanty—who just rushed for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie behind a horrible offensive line against defenses that were keyed in on him—and Brock Bowers, who’s already one of the best tight ends in the league… and suddenly you’ve got something.
The Raiders also have around $100 million in cap space to address their offensive line, which was one of the worst in football last year.
Now here’s the catch—Kubiak has never been a head coach before. Mendoza has never taken an NFL snap. This is a lot of inexperience at the two most important positions in the building.
But the upside is real. If Kubiak can do for Mendoza what he did for Sam Darnold in Seattle… watch out.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kevin Stefanski
Kevin Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year winner. He knows how to develop quarterbacks. He knows how to run an offense… his problem was just being stuck in Cleveland, where the front office basically tied his hands behind his back with the way they mismanaged their roster.
In any case, he landed on his feet with the Falcons, which is better, but still, the situation in Atlanta is complicated.
Michael Penix Jr. is coming off ACL surgery. He won’t be fully healthy until at least the start of the season—maybe later. Kirk Cousins is still on the roster with a contract situation that’s a ticking time bomb and expected to be released…
Long story short, there is still a lot for Matt Ryan—yes, that Matt Ryan—who is now the team’s president of football operations, to figure out with that roster.
But if his football IQ, which was among the best in the game when he was under center for the Falcons, translates to the front office, they could be in business.
The NFC South is also wide open. The Buccaneers are aging. The Saints are rebuilding. The Panthers are… the Panthers—and no one knows what to expect out of them next year.
If Penix comes back fully healthy and Stefanski can work his magic, the Falcons could surprise some people. But that’s a lot of ifs for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in eight years.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Mike LaFleur
Mike LaFleur comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree… but he’s stepping into a situation that even McVay couldn’t fix overnight.
The Cardinals went 3-14 last season. They finished on a nine-game losing streak. They had the worst fourth-quarter point differential in the entire league. And now they’re almost certainly moving on from Kyler Murray before his 2027 salary becomes guaranteed.
So what does that leave LaFleur with?
Jacoby Brissett as the placeholder? A third overall pick that probably won’t be used on a quarterback because this draft class is so thin at the position? A division that includes the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks and a Rams team that just went to the NFC Championship?
Yeah… good luck with that.
LaFleur is a sharp offensive mind. He learned under Kyle Shanahan. He helped Matthew Stafford look elite in Los Angeles. But Arizona needs a complete overhaul—offensive line, linebacker, safety, and most importantly, quarterback.
This is expected to be a multi-year project… unless LaFleur can find some magic with whomever he brings in under center.
The one rumor that has people thinking the Cardinals could sneak up on folks is the connection with Malik Willis, who has done a complete 180 for Mike’s brother, Matt, in Green Bay.
If those two link up and can build on the success the dual-threat quarterback found with his big bro… watch out!
4. New York Giants: John Harbaugh
Now we’re getting to the coaches with real Super Bowl equity.
John Harbaugh spent 18 seasons in Baltimore. He won a Super Bowl. He made the playoffs 12 times. And he went 180 and 113. The man knows how to build a winning program.
And he’s walking into a Giants team that might be better than you think.
Jaxson Dart showed flashes as a rookie quarterback last year. Malik Nabers is a legitimate number one receiver. Cam Skattebo is a bruising running back who fits Harbaugh’s physical style. The defensive front has real talent… they just need to be unlocked.
The Giants went 4-13 last season… but so did the Patriots the year before they went to the Super Bowl. Sometimes, all it takes is the right coach to flip the culture.
Harbaugh brought in Matt Nagy to run the offense and Dennard Wilson to run the defense. Both have experience. Both know what winning at the pro level looks like.
Here’s the thing about Harbaugh—he commands respect the moment he walks into a room. Players know his track record. They know he’s won a championship. They know he’s not going to accept mediocrity.
The Giants aren’t going to be picked to win the NFC East. But don’t be shocked if they’re in the playoff conversation by December.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy is another coach on this list who has already won a Super Bowl as a head coach… and what makes this fit particularly interesting is who he had under center when he did it…
For those who don’t remember, McCarthy won it all with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay back in 2010. Now he’s reunited with that same quarterback in Pittsburgh… assuming Rodgers doesn’t retire.
And that’s the million-dollar question.
Rodgers is 42 years old. He’s coming off a solid season where he went 10 and 7 as a starter and led the Steelers to the playoffs. But he’s also been hinting at retirement for years. McCarthy said he wants him back. The organization said they’ll wait for his decision. But nothing is guaranteed.
If Rodgers returns, the Steelers are legitimate contenders. They have a great defense. They have an experienced coach who knows exactly how to maximize what Rodgers does best… not to mention one of the most interesting reunion stories in recent memory.
If Rodgers doesn’t return? Will Howard—a sixth-round pick who missed all of last season with a broken finger— or Mason Rudolph becomes the de facto option. And that’s a completely different conversation.
Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl chances hinge entirely on what a 42-year-old quarterback decides to do with his offseason. That’s a risky position to be in. But make no mistake about it, this is an organization with the right infrastructure to win it all.
2: Baltimore Ravens: Jesse Minter
Jesse Minter has massive shoes to fill.
John Harbaugh was with the Ravens for nearly two decades. He built the culture, developed Lamar Jackson, and won a Super Bowl… And now he’s in New York—and Minter is left to prove that Baltimore made the right call by moving on.
The good news? Minter is walking into one of the most talented rosters in football.
Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP. Kyle Hamilton is arguably the best safety in the league. Roquan Smith is a tackling machine. Derrick Henry is still a freight train at running back.
Minter also knows this building. He spent four years on Harbaugh’s staff earlier in his career. He understands what Ravens football is supposed to look like.
If Jackson is healthy and Minter can get the defense back to its typical standard, the Ravens are a top-five team in the AFC.
They still have to prove it, but given the continuity and roster talent, it is fair to say that the ceiling is championship-level.
1. Buffalo Bills: Joe Brady
And here we are.
Joe Brady takes over a Buffalo Bills team that has been knocking on the door for years. They’ve made the playoffs six straight seasons and have had one of the best quarterbacks in the game for half a decade.
Now it’s Brady’s job to finally get them over the hump.
The good news is that Brady isn’t walking into an unfamiliar situation. He was already the Bills’ offensive coordinator and has a good relationship with Josh Allen…
There’s continuity here. And in a league where coaching changes usually mean growing pains, continuity is valuable.
Allen is the early favorite to win MVP again in 2026. James Cook just won the rushing title. The defense has the right pieces.
The only question is whether Brady—a first-time head coach—can handle the pressure of leading a team with championship-or-bust expectations… and get them pasted the threshold that Sean McDermott couldn’t.
Pressure aside, Brady couldn’t ask for a better opportunity as his first head coaching gig… if there’s one roster in this group that’s built to win right now, it’s Buffalo.
