The Cardinals and Kyler Murray
This article was originally published on Over The Cap.
Recently I received a number of questions regarding the Cardinals options with QB Kyler Murray, who was recently placed on IR, next season to see if Arizona would or would not consider moving on from him. Murray has struggled to stay healthy the last four years and has a 16-25 record over that stretch with him as starter and it may be time for the two sides to look for a fresh start.
Murray signed a somewhat controversial contract with Arizona in 2022 that made him one of the highest paid players in the NFL but included one of the most bizarre clauses in recent NFL history that would void his guarantees if he did not complete a specified amount of “independent study” hours related to game preparation. Apparently, this was in reference to concerns over video game playing getting in the way of game preparation. The clause came under such public ridicule that the Cardinals almost had to immediately remove the clause from the contract.
Despite the Cardinals showing some concerns with Murray as a franchise QB they went all in on the guarantee structure of the contract. Murray received injury protection for the first three new years of the contract and had early vesting dates on each of those salaries. In addition Murray received a conditional $19.5 million salary guarantee for the fourth year of his five year contract extension which will trigger in March of the prior year. At the time that was seemingly reserved for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but the decision to include it for Murray made the long term guarantee a league wide policy in future contract extensions for QBs.
Murray’s salary cap charge in 2026 will be around $53 million, the 9th highest number in the NFL. Murray’s salary in 2026 is $42.54 million of which $36.8 million is already fully guaranteed. His salary is the 11th highest among QBs in the NFL. If Murray is on the roster on the 5th day of the league year he will earn $3.035 million of his non-guaranteed salary for 2026 and will also earn the $19.5 million salary guarantee for 2027. That 5th day trigger would be the deadline for the Cardinals to either release or trade Murray.
The Cardinals have wisely stayed away from restructuring Murray’s contract, but the cost to release him is still high due to the guaranteed salary. If the team releases Murray from his contract then would take on $54.718 million in dead money in 2026, a loss of about $1.5 million in cap room. The Cardinals don’t have salary cap issues so that is certainly a possible outcome. The post June 1 designation does not really change the cap charges much (it only defers $7.2 million to 2027) since the team has stayed away from restructuring the contract for cap relief the last three years and avoided much prorated money.
The Cardinals would need to be sold on Murray as their starter for the next two years if they were to keep him. If they release him next March, the Cardinals would pay $36.8M in cash and $54.718 million on the cap. If they keep him, he fails and then they want to move on in 2027 they would then pay around $62 million in cash and $80 million on the cap. That makes no sense at all so if there is any hesitation about his floor and ceiling as a starter they can’t keep him and sink that much more room for another losing season.
The best solution for the Cardinals would be a trade, which would only cost $17.92 million on the cap, but the contract numbers make that tricky. As mentioned above, Murray’s salary for next season is the 11th highest in the NFL and nobody would consider him anywhere near the top 10 in the NFL. In recent years teams have not been as bullish on players like Murray and there is little reason to think they would be interested at these numbers.
Baker Mayfield came off a much stronger season when he signed an extension with the Bucs and he earned $30 million in his first contract year and had a total of $40 million fully guaranteed when he signed that contract. Sam Darnold, coming off a much better year, received $37 million as a free agent from the Seahawks. That was also the guarantee. For Murray we are looking at $42.5 million in salary and $62 million practically guaranteed when the trade would be made.
The question for Arizona is what would the market be if they ate salary in a trade? The best case scenario would be Justin Fields whose contract paid $20 million on the front end and had $30 million guaranteed. The contract was widely panned when signed. The next player would be Daniel Jones who received $14 million for the year. Arizona already owes him $36.8M so paying down $30M would bring the contract down to two years for $49M with about $32M guaranteed. Maybe they could get something if they did that and it would be a positive for them overall with the cap. Anything more than $35 million is not really worth the trouble. They should explore this option in February and see if there is any hope to it.
The other slim possibility would be to see if he would be willing to rework his contract either for a trade or to remain the starter in Arizona. That would likely require him giving up his salary guarantee for 2027 and maybe some non-guaranteed salary in 2026. I am not sure that makes much sense for either side but if Arizona wants to give it one more shot that would be the way to do it. This would also maximize Murray’s earnings since he likely wont earn anything above the salary guarantee the Cardinals owe him next year since any salary earned from another team would be subject to offsets.
For what it’s worth the Cardinals can not actually release Murray until the start of free agency. So while they may announce it earlier they can’t actually release him so they have time to try to make something happen. Most likely he will be cut on the first day of free agency, but crazy things happen with QBs so it wouldn’t be stunning if the two sides come to some agreement before then.
