5 NFL Free Agent Signings Who Will Flop With Their New Teams IN 2026…And 5 that Will Shine

Once again, it took very little time for the top NFL free agents to fly off the board. Most of the big names had already agreed to deals with NFL teams before the official league new year began.

With most of the free agents finding new homes so quickly, let’s dive into which players will shine with their new teams…and which ones will flop.

Which NFL players will play well with their new teams and which will not?

Shine: Kenneth Walker III

Four weeks after winning his first championship ring and Super Bowl 60 MVP honors, Walker agreed to a three-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs worth $43.05 million.

It’s a mild surprise that the Seattle Seahawks didn’t work harder to retain their Super Bowl 60 hero. But if you’re the Chiefs, you owe this team one giant “thank you” basket for letting Walker hit the open market.

Kansas City hasn’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2017, when Patrick Mahomes was a rookie backup to Alex Smith. Heck, Isiah Pacheco is the only Chiefs player to hit 900 rushing yards since 2018.

A washed-up Kareem Hunt led the Chiefs with 611 rushing yards last year. With no threats in the ground game, the Patrick Mahomes-led passing game struggled like never before. The result? The Chiefs’ first non-playoff season since 2014, and their first losing campaign since 2012.

But now, Walker becomes the most talented running back Mahomes has ever had. And certainly, it’s Andy Reid’s best since prime Jamaal Charles.

Walker should fit perfectly in the Chiefs’ offense. With teams having to respect the passing game again, there will be plenty of holes for Walker to exploit – especially if defenses continue to play two-high shells against No. 15.

When the Chiefs swing big in free agency, they always win. Coming off a monster season, Walker is already in line to have a career year in 2026. A rushing title is not out of the question in a Reid and Mahomes-led offense.

Flop: Odafe Oweh

The Washington Commanders have holes all over the roster. So it was a surprise to see this NFL team hand a four-year, $100 million deal to former Los Angeles Chargers edge rusher Odafe Oweh instead of spreading that money around multiple positions.

Oweh has never been a superstar, with only one season of double-digit sacks on his resume. And yet, the Commanders are paying Oweh like he’s a multi-time Pro Bowler. Why?

The Baltimore Ravens have a knack for getting the most out of their first-round picks. Oweh had one good season there. To his credit, Oweh took off after joining the Chargers in a trade last season, recording 7.5 sacks in just 12 games.

But asking Oweh to post similar production on a new team with a completely different defensive scheme is risky business. Unlike Baltimore and LA, he won’t be surrounded by other stud pass rushers in Washington. 

The contract makes little sense, and the fit doesn’t look so hot on paper. This could easily go down as the most regrettable free agent signing of 2026, folks.

Shine: Mike Evans

Evans seemed poised to finish his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after signing a lucrative two-year extension in 2024…just when everybody thought he would chase another ring with a contender like the Chiefs or Buffalo Bills.

But after missing most of the 2025 season with injuries, Evans and the Buccaneers made the difficult decision to split. He then signed a three-year, $42.4 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers in free agency.

The term may seem generous given that Evans is entering his age-33 season. But the price is very fair for a future Hall of Famer with eleven 1,000-yard seasons under his belt.

Evans should take over as the 49ers’ new No. 1 receiver with Brandon Aiyuk leaving town. And as one of the game’s all-time great deep threats and contested catch specialists, there’s no telling how much Evans could produce in a Kyle Shanahan-coached offense.

Think about all those years where Evans was catching passes from guys like Josh McCown and Jameis Winston. He was Tampa’s only real pass-catching threat, and he was still putting up 1K seasons.

Now, Evans catches passes from Brock Purdy. With opposing defenses having to account for Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle, Evans is going to continue drawing favorable 1-on-1 matchups. His Super Bowl-winning experience is a nice bonus for an NFL team that’s struggled to get over the Super Bowl hump.

Flop: Quay Walker

The Las Vegas Raiders have spent a ridiculous amount in free agency, quickly agreeing to lucrative deals with center Tyler Linderbaum and bolstering the D by bringing in Quay Walker, Kwity Paye, and Nakobe Dean.

Among those big-ticket signings, though, Walker is the one who brings the most question marks.

The Raiders gave the former Green Bay Packers’ first-round pick a three-year contract worth $40.5 million. No offense to GM John Spytek and new head coach Klint Kubiak, but what kind of game film from Walker led them to believe he’s worth that money?

Walker’s well-rounded game and supreme athleticism were supposed to make him the next big deal in Green Bay. Over his four years there, he graded out as an average or below-average player at Pro Football Focus.

In his final year with the Packers, Walker had a terrible 48.5 PFF grade. And over his four years there, he allowed a 93.6 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Coverage was supposed to be one of his main strengths, by the way.

The Raiders have a bad history of wasting valuable dollars in free agency. Given their status as the NFL’s worst team, it’s hard to think that they’ll somehow unlock Walker’s potential. Especially if the Packers of all teams couldn’t do it.

Shine: Romeo Doubs

Was it an overpay by the New England Patriots? Yes. Doesn’t mean Doubs won’t shine with his new NFL team, though.

After releasing top wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the reigning AFC champions signed Doubs to a four-year deal worth $68 million. We’ll see how the rest of the offseason plays out. But right now, Doubs slots in as Drake Maye’s new No. 1 wide receiver.

Doubs had a career year in his final season with the Packers, catching 55 passes for 724 yards and six touchdowns. No small feat, considering Green Bay’s pass-catching room also included Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden.

Doubs won’t have to compete as much for targets in New England’s thinner wide receiver room. As an explosive deep threat who’s averaged 12 yards per catch in his career, Doubs should make a smooth transition into the Drake Maye-led offense.

Flop: Boye Mafe

Remember when the Tennessee Titans gave Bud Dupree a five-year deal worth $82.5 million in 2021 free agency? Everyone knew that would flop because his strong production was thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ star-studded defense.

It’s not as big a contract, but the Cincinnati Bengals’ decision to give Mafe a three-year deal worth $60 million feels awfully similar to the Titans’ boneheaded decision to pay Dupree the big bucks in 2021.

Mafe had one great season with the Seattle Seahawks, notching nine sacks in 2023. His playing time decreased significantly in 2024, and he was demoted to “rotational” player duties in 2025, playing exactly 50 percent of Seattle’s defensive snaps.

Well, Mafe isn’t going to play with as many studs in Cincinnati compared to the Seahawks’ historically good defense. With Trey Hendrickson down, the Bengals are now relying on Mafe AND unproven 2025 first-round pick Shemar Stewart to lead a horrific defense that finished 30th in scoring last year.

Good luck to Mafe, going from a useful rotational player in Seattle to arguably the NFL’s worst defensive team! This signing has “flop” written all over it.

Shine: Jaylen Watson

Not already satisfied enough in trading for Chiefs superstar cornerback Trent McDuffie, Los Angeles Rams GM Les Snead took it a step further by reuniting Kansas City’s old super cornerback tandem.

The Rams signed Watson to a three-year deal worth $51 million in free agency. Just like that, LA’s stout defense was bolstered with two big-time shutdown corners with a combined four Super Bowl rings.

Watson was one of the few positives on a disappointing Kansas City team last season, allowing a passer rating of just 79. The year before, the passer rating was 75.4. And over those two years, he allowed a single touchdown in coverage.

The Rams are one of those teams that always seem to hit the jackpot when they make a big trade or signing. There should be no issue regaining that chemistry with McDuffie on an even better Los Angeles club.

Flop: Travis Etienne Jr.

In one of the biggest “nobody saw that coming” moves, the New Orleans Saints made a big splash by signing the ex-Jacksonville Jaguars star to a four-year deal worth $52 million.

This move raises far too many eyebrows for us. He may not be in his prime anymore, but a healthy Alvin Kamara is still a very effective running back. Rookie Devin Neal also showed some flashes in 10 games.

And so, the rebuilding Saints decided to use a large chunk of their cap space on a skill position guy they don’t really need? 

Look, Tyler Shough showed a lot of promise as a rookie. But he isn’t Trevor Lawrence.

Also, the Jaguars finished sixth per ESPN’s run-block win rate last season. The Saints finished 23rd. Big drop-off there.

Aside from running behind an elite offensive line, Etienne played in an offense featuring other stars like Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers. Opposing defenses had to respect the pass, meaning plenty of opportunities for Etienne to break open as a rusher and receiver.

The Saints’ offense doesn’t have the same playmakers as Jacksonville. Etienne isn’t going to have as many holes as a runner to exploit here. He basically has to put up around 1,500 yards of offense a year to justify this deal. That ain’t happening in an NFL team like NOLA.

Shine: Malik Willis

After announcing their plans to cut ties with Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins signed the ex-Packers backup to a three-year pact worth $67.5 million.

Willis looked like a steady veteran in the games he played with Jordan Love injured. Now he’s got the chance to be a bona fide QB1. 

This is a lot of money for a guy with only six starts under his belt. But the Tagovailoa experiment had run its course. And with the 2026 draft class weak on quarterback depth, this just feels like the move Miami had to make.

New Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley was Green Bay’s defensive coordinator during Willis’ two years there. And rookie GM Jon-Eric Sullivan was part of the Packers’ front office that acquired Willis in a trade with Tennessee.

So, this should be a nice transition for Willis to South Beach. He has two stud weapons at his disposal in Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. And you know Miami will continue to add more playmakers around its new QB.

Flop: Wan’Dale Robinson

After three underwhelming seasons to begin his career, Robinson finally had a breakout year on a lousy New York Giants team in 2025. He finished with 92 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns. 

The Tennessee Titans had bundles of cap space to use up, and they sorely need a new No. 1 receiver for Cam Ward. So, we get the idea of overpaying here for Robinson, who secured a four-year deal worth $70 million.

But context matters here. Robinson had a career year because…he was targeted 140 times. Seventh-most targets in the league, by the way.

Robinson was New York’s top receiver because superstar Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 4. With Nabers out, Robinson had all those targets to himself, thanks to the lack of game-changers in the passing game after those two.

So now, Robinson becomes the No. 1 receiver on a terrible Tennessee team with no other true game-changers. How exactly is he going to produce when other teams focus squarely on him in the passing game? And uh, Cam Ward is a dual-threat QB, not a stud pocket passer like Jaxson Dart.

And for those who wish to cite Robinson’s familiarity with Titans OC and former Giants coach Brian Daboll? Ahem, Robinson’s production spiked after Daboll was fired with seven games to go.

We have little doubt Robinson will flop with the Titans. The more fascinating question is whether his contract will be worse than Calvin Ridley’s.