5 Quarterbacks Guaranteed To Win A Super Bowl In The Next 10 Years — And 5 Who Definitely Won’t
This article was originally published on Total Pro Sports.
There is no denying that the quarterback is the most important position on the football field. Without a proper field general, no team will have any chance of navigating a punishing 17-game schedule and a grueling 2 or 3-playoff schedule en route to hopefully winning the Super Bowl. A simple eye test can identify quarterbacks who, based on ability or playing on poor NFL teams, have no chance of winning a Super Bowl.
With that in mind, let’s examine 5 quarterbacks who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy within the next 10 years… and 5 who won’t.
Which current NFL quarterbacks will win the Super Bowl and which ones won’t?
WILL – Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
This one might be the easiest selection for our list. The Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champions, so it’s easy to see them having a great chance to repeat. Before we even get to the quarterback position, Seattle has one of the deepest and most well-built teams in the NFL. Their defense is elite and will bring back essentially the same unit as last year. On the offensive side, they did lose Running Back Kenneth Walker III, but still retained star Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Which brings us to quarterback Sam Darnold.
The 28-year-old has seemed to discover the secret of being a successful quarterback, as he has taken his game to another level in his first year in Seattle. In 2025, Darnold threw for over 4,000 yards with 25 touchdowns en route to earning his second Pro Bowl nomination. Since neither the passing yards nor touchdowns were career highs, it’s certainly possible for Darnold to put together an even better season than last year, especially as he becomes more comfortable in Head Coach Mike Macdonald’s system. A quarterback who has finally “figured it out” on a team loaded with talent, Sam Darnold will win another Super Bowl.
WON’T – Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons
Tua Tagovailoa was an easy choice. He’s just not a winning quarterback; as such, he will not win a Super Bowl as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Let’s be honest, with his concussion history, there’s a pretty good chance that he doesn’t make it through the next season, let alone the next ten. Supporters of Tua will point to the facts that the quarterback led the league in passing yards in 2023 and in completion percentage in 2024.
But those stats are a bit misleading. One thing we’ve seen over Tua’s first 6 years in the league is that he is very good at completing screen passes and short slants. In fact, due to the speed of the Dolphins’ receivers and backs, the coaches designed the playbook to fit Tua’s strengths. One area where Tagovailoa struggled was with the deep ball. The Dolphins have decided to embark on a rebuild, in part, because they made a mistake drafting Tua in 2020.
In fact, Miami decided it would be better to cut the QB and take on a $99+ million cap hit. The Fins attempted to trade Tua, but no other team wanted him. Eventually, he signed a free agent deal to compete with Michael Penix for the quarterback job with the Falcons. Here’s to betting that Tua isn’t the answer in Atlanta either.
WILL – Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
The Giants have been in a rebuild since 2017, with only 2 winning seasons in the last decade. Fortunately for the Giants, their rebuild got a major jump with the hiring of John Harbaugh as the new Head Coach. Harbaugh spent 18 years patrolling the Ravens’ sideline, winning 293 games and Super Bowl XLVII, and will bring a hard-edge approach that the Giants have been lacking. But this article is about quarterbacks and Super Bowls, so let’s talk about Jaxson Dart.
Harbaugh inherits Dart, a 22-year-old quarterback who convinced the New York front office that he was the long-term answer under center… and he just might be right. Dart impressed enough even without the benefit of throwing the ball to stud wide receiver Malik Nabors.
Once Nabors returns to full strength, it will be fun to see the numbers that he and the young quarterback put up. It won’t be long until the New York Giants are once again hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, and Jaxson Dart will be the one to lead them there.
WON’T – Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
What exactly are the Dallas Cowboys? After three straight 12-win seasons, the Cowboys have followed that up with two straight 7-win seasons and questions as to whether or not a rebuild is in order. If everything were to break right for Dallas in 2026, starting receivers George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb both surpass 1,000 yards receiving, Javonte Williams rushes for 1,500 yards, the defense reverts to one of the league’s top units, and quarterback Dak Prescott remains one of the league’s best passers.
With a 4-year, $240 million contract that will keep him in Dallas through 2028, the Cowboys really hope Prescott remains elite. For that to happen, the quarterback will need to stay on the field. Prescott has been relatively reliable so far in his career, having started 139 of 165 games. But therein lies the trouble, as Prescott has missed significant time with injury in 2020 (ankle fracture and dislocation), 2022 (fractured thumb), and 2024 (tore his hamstring off the bone).
His injury history, along with his age, which he’ll turn 33 before the season, suggests that further breakdowns are not just possible, but probable. There are just too many questions surrounding Prescott to think that he’ll win a Super Bowl before he retires. (Sorry, Danny)
WILL – Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Drake Maye will win a Super Bowl. It’s a question of when, not if. He became the starter in New England as a rookie in 2024. The 3rd overall pick of the 2024 Draft struggled that first year, finishing with a 3-9 record, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. After Maye’s first year, wondering how long the rebuild would last in New England was a fair question. Then the 2025 season took place, and Drake Maye took things to another level.
The second-year quarterback exploded onto the scene, throwing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Maye led the Patriots to a 14-3 regular season record, winning an additional 3 more games in the playoffs before falling to the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. That was a pretty impressive run for any player, let alone a second-year one.
The Patriots will have a harder schedule in 2026 than the previous year, but their team is stocked and talented. It will be interesting to watch what Maye will do. As the Bills and Chiefs dynasties fade, the Patriots and Drake Maye appear poised to take their spot atop the NFL’s elite.
WON’T – Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
If I were writing this article during the first half of the 2025 season, Daniel Jones might not have been included. Based on the first six years of Jones’ career, all spent with the Giants, one could reasonably expect him to have a nice career as a backup quarterback. However, in 2025, Jones began to change the narrative.
In 13 games before suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon, Jones led the Colts to an 8-5 record, throwing for 3,101 passing yards with 19 touchdowns, and beginning to show signs of why he was a former 1st round draft choice. But here’s the thing, I’m not sold on Daniel Jones. Looking deeper at his numbers from 2025 shows a quarterback who, even before the injury, was beginning to show signs of reverting to past form.
Prior to his injury, the Colts had lost 3 of the previous 4 games, and while they lost the last 5 games of 2025, there’s no guarantee that a healthy Daniel Jones would’ve changed any of those outcomes. Jones signed a 2-year, $88 million extension that will keep him in Indianapolis through 2027, but I think they overpaid. Daniel Jones is not the one to take any team to the promised land.
WILL – Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
For some reason, Brock Purdy is a polarizing quarterback. Detractors will say that he can’t stay healthy and was deserving of his 7th round pick in the draft. In fact, those detractors love pointing out that Purdy was “Mr. Irrelevant” of the 2022 Draft – the last player picked. Supporters of the quarterback think that the 49ers got a steal in the ‘22 Draft and that, when healthy, he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the game.
Most likely, neither his supporters nor detractors is correct, and Purdy lies somewhere in between their assessments. There is no denying that the 49ers quarterback has talent. In 2023, his first full year as a starter, he surpassed 4,000 passing yards with 31 touchdowns in leading San Francisco to a 12-4 record and a trip to Super Bowl LVIII, a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It seems that the issues related to Purdy over the last two seasons have been injury, both to him and several other key players. In fact, injuries to other key players might’ve been too much for the Niners to overcome in the 2025 playoffs. Something tells me that stars will align and Brock Purdy will win the Super Bowl.
WON’T – Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Here comes what might be the most controversial quarterback to make our list, but keep an open mind and take an honest look at what’s going on in Kansas City. Was 2025’s 6-11 record an aberration and result of Mahomes’ injury, or the beginning of the end for the Chiefs dynasty? Andy Reid is entering his 14th season as Head Coach in KC after 14 seasons with the Eagles.
At 68 years of age, with 3 Super Bowl titles, 279 career wins, and a future HoF induction, it’s fair to ask how much longer he’ll stick around. The Chiefs’ leading receiver the last 4 seasons, TE Travis Kelce, will be 37 during the 2026 season and is probably heading into his last season. The WR room has never recovered from losing Tyreek Hill and scares no one. The cracks in the Chiefs are there, which brings us to Mahomes.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old quarterback is attempting to come back from a significant injury. Rehabbing from surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL, doubt still remains whether or not Mahomes will be able to return in time to start Week 1 of the 2026 season. Even if he does, how effective will he be as he continues to recover? Mahomes has won 3 Super Bowls and has been the face of the NFL for the last 8 years. His time may have just passed.
WILL – Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix was the 12th overall pick by Denver in the 2024 NFL Draft and was named the starting quarterback for that season. As a rookie, Nix threw for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdowns on the way to finishing 3rd in the voting for the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. The 2025 season saw Nix take a huge step forward, as he finished with over 3,900 yards and 25 touchdowns, leading the Broncos to a 14-3 record and a trip to the AFC Conference Championship game.
While they lost that game to the Patriots, it is fair to ask if the results would’ve been similar if Nix hadn’t missed the game with the broken ankle he suffered in the team’s victory over the Bills. Nix is expected to be ready to go for the start of 2026, so barring any setbacks, expectations for this season will be high for the young quarterback.
The Broncos’ front office had a busy and successful offseason in primarily keeping the 2025 team intact, with one notable exception. Denver was able to go out and acquire Wide Receiver Jaylen Waddle from Miami for draft picks. Waddle brings three 1,000-yard receiving seasons to a receiving room that already includes Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. Nix is in a great spot to win not one, but multiple Super Bowls.
WON’T – Cleveland Browns Quarterbacks
If it seems like I pick on the Browns a lot, it might be because I do! The Cleveland Browns might be the worst-run franchise in the NFL, if not in North American pro sports. Since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns have had 4 winning seasons. That is not a typo. Four winning seasons in the last 27 years make selecting Cleveland for this list appropriate.
We know the Browns as a team will not win a Super Bowl anytime soon, so I’m not only including the 3 current quarterbacks on the Cleveland roster, but any and all quarterbacks that suit up for them over the next decade. Look, the Browns don’t even know who their starting quarterback will be in 2026, and let’s be honest, none of them provide any level of comfort for fans. First up is the current favorite for the job, Deshaun Watson.
He hasn’t played a full season since 2020 and has only played in 19 games over the last 5 years. Next up is Shedeur Sanders, a second-year player who was not exactly awe-inspiring in his rookie year. After those two, it’s Dillon Gabriel and Taylen Green. Forget the Super Bowl; the real question should be if any of the Browns quarterbacks will have a winning season in the next decade.
