Cowboys To Win 11 Games? Why Dallas Is Poised To Make Playoffs In 2026

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The Dallas Cowboys having high expectations isn’t anything new, but maybe this is the year they can meet those expectations. After predicting every game on the Cowboys’ schedule, “First Things First” co-host Danny Parkins believes that Dallas will finish the season 11-6. Parkins envisions the Cowboys starting the year strong, going 5-1 as he thinks they’ll pick up wins against the New York Giants and Washington Commanders before upsetting the Baltimore Ravens. “I think they are going to continue to have a ton of success against the Giants and Washington,” Parkins said. On Baltimore, he added, “I just don’t know that Baltimore is ready to win a shootout. I am not as optimistic on Baltimore’s offense as I am on their defense, and I think their defense will be better later in the year than early.” As for the games the Cowboys will lose, Parkins sees them falling to the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. However, Parkins also believes Dallas will win one of its matchups against Philadelphia and take down the Green Bay Packers (who could have former Cowboys star Micah Parsons healthy for that game) and the Jacksonville Jaguars. “Dak Prescott is a more reliable commodity than Trevor Lawrence,” Parkins said, explaining why he likes the Cowboys to take down the defending AFC South champion Jaguars late in the year. “Overall, an 11-6 season.” Dallas isn’t projected to win 11 games in 2026, so Parkins’ prediction is certainly on the optimistic side for the Cowboys. Most oddsmakers have the Cowboys’ win total at 9.5, with over 9.5 wins sitting at +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook. But the Cowboys were favored in 11 games on the look-ahead lines. While Parkins and some others might be feeling bullish about the Cowboys, our Ben Arthur isn’t. He predicted Dallas to go 6-11 when the schedule was released in May. “It helps that the NFC East isn’t as threatening as it was a year ago at this time. But their non-division schedule is brutal,” Arthur wrote. “Expectations are high in Dallas, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see it take a step back.” However, the start of training camp could help spark some more hope in Dallas. The Cowboys made sweeping changes to their defense this offseason, poaching Christian Parker from the Eagles and making him their defensive coordinator. Dallas also has eight new starters on defense, including safety Caleb Downs, edge rusher Rashan Gary and cornerback Kobie Durant. With those changes in place, our Eric D. Williams believes that the Cowboys might have a defense suited to help their offense after finishing last in points allowed last season. “Every day we come out here, we want to compete at a high level and do your one-eleventh,” Durant told Williams following a recent Cowboys practice. “And it’s on display every day we come out here. High energy, everybody doing their part and bringing what we do in the classroom and make it come to life on the field.” If the Cowboys’ defense is better than it was last year, maybe they’ll make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons. Dallas went 7-9-1 in 2025, with Dak Prescott and the offense doing much of the heavy lifting.